The commercial and investment real estate business has been very soft for the last 2.5 to 3 years in this area. 2010 saw a reasonable up-tick in leasing activity, but sales remained substantially less than 50% of what we typically experience. Much of our investment activity over the past several years was driven by "1031" tax deferred exchange transactions. That has almost completely dried up.
In the last 3 - 4 months, we noticed a definite increase in leasing activity, some sales activity and substantially more prospects calling and looking at properties to lease and to purchase. Investors' psychology has begun to turn, wherein they are now seriously considering making an investment with the cash they have been sitting on. They perceive the market is "bottoming out" and perhaps now is the time to buy. Returns on alternative investments are at historic lows, and real estate can still deliver an honest 6% to 10% cash return.
There's plenty of commercial money available from various lenders....loan to value ratios are probably down in the 60% to 70% range (requiring more cash equity) and securing a loan at a fixed rate for 10 years or more is challenging to get, most want to re-price or call the loan in 5 years. However, interest rates remain at an all-time low. Depending on the property type, rates will range from low 5% to 6.5%, maybe 7%.
Even during this recent down turn in the economy, sellers have been very reluctant to recognize the fact that their property may have lost 20% to 30% of it's previous value...Thus, have not been motivated to sell. That's now beginning to change and we're seeing signs from sellers that they are becoming more motivated. This will create an environment where "deals" can be structured. In addition, we are hearing that some of the banks want to rid themselves of their foreclosed properties.
Higher than normal unemployment still hampers a robust rebound in our area (although we're better off than much of the nation) but considering all of these elements, 2011 looks like it will be a much improved year.
Friday, April 8, 2011
Tuesday, March 1, 2011
NAR/SIOR First Quarter 2011 Commercial Market Forecast
Commercial Real Estate Vacancy Rates to Decline but Rent Recovery Delayed
WASHINGTON (February 25, 2011) – A stabilization trend is taking place in commercial real estate sectors, but in most markets rent will remain soft except for multifamily rentals, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said a pullback in construction is helping stabilize the market. “Very limited construction of new commercial real estate over the past few years has essentially fixed the supply of available space,” he said. “This means vacancy rates could fall quickly from any increase in demand for commercial space.”
From the first quarter of this year to the first quarter of 2012, NAR expects vacancy rates to decline 0.5 percentage point in the office sector, 1.3 points in industrial real estate, 0.1 point in the retail sector and 0.9 percentage point in the multifamily rental market.
“Even with declining vacancy rates, rents are not likely to turn positive in most markets until next year, outside of multifamily rental properties,” Yun said. For example, office rents are forecast to fall 1.8 percent this year before turning higher by 4.0 percent in 2012.
“Apartment rent increases are expected to accelerate from job creation leading to new household formation, particularly among the young adult population who will seek their own housing arrangements – many will be leaving their parents’ homes, or choose to live with with fewer roommates,” Yun said.
Average apartment rent is projected to grow 3.4 percent this year and another 4.2 percent in 2012.
“Rising apartment rent in combination with rising oil prices could push the overall inflation rate beyond a comfort level, which could then force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later this year or early in 2012,” Yun added.
The Society of Industrial and Office Realtors, in its SIOR Commercial Real Estate Index, an attitudinal survey of more than 360 local market experts,1 shows a notable improvement in market fundamentals.
The SIOR index, measuring the impact of 10 variables, rose 8.1 percentage points to 50.7 in the fourth quarter, the largest quarterly gain in five years, and is at the highest level since the fall of 2008. However, the index is well below a level of 100 that represents a balanced marketplace. This is the fifth consecutive quarterly improvement following nearly three years of decline, but the last time the index was at the 100 level was in the third quarter of 2007.
Commercial Real Estate Forecast/Market Report
Seventy-eight percent of SIOR participants expect improvements in the office and industrial sectors for the first quarter of this year.
There has been an increase of liquidity in Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities, which is helping to open the commercial market to more property transactions; commercial real estate sales had been stalled over the past few years with excessively tight credit conditions. In terms of development acquisitions, it remains a buyer’s market for those with cash or who can obtain credit financing.
NAR’s latest COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK2 offers projections for four major commercial sectors and analyzes quarterly data in the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets. Historic data were provided by CBRE Econometric Advisors.
Office Markets
Vacancy rates in the office sector are forecast to decline from 16.5 percent in the first quarter of this year to 16.0 percent in the first quarter of 2012.
The markets with the lowest office vacancy rates currently are New York City and Honolulu, with vacancies in the 8 to 9 percent range.
In 57 markets tracked, net absorption of office space, which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, should be 14.5 million square feet in 2011.
Industrial Markets
Industrial vacancy rates are projected to decline from 14.2 percent in the current quarter to 12.9 percent in the first quarter of 2012.
At present, the areas with the lowest industrial vacancy rates are Los Angeles and Salt Lake City, with vacancies of 7.5 percent.
Annual industrial rent is likely to decline 2.5 percent in 2011, before rising 3.0 percent next year. Net absorption of industrial space in 58 markets tracked should be 127.5 million square feet in 2011.
Retail Markets
Retail vacancy rates are expected to slip from 13.0 percent in the first quarter of this year to 12.9 percent in the first quarter of 2012.
Markets with the lowest retail vacancy rates currently include San Francisco; Miami; Honolulu; and Long Island, N.Y., all with vacancies in the 7 to 8 percent range.
Average retail rent is seen to decline 0.9 percent in 2011, then rising 0.7 percent next year. Net absorption of retail space in 53 tracked markets is projected to be 4.8 million in 2011.
Multifamily Markets
The apartment rental market – multifamily housing – is tightening as the economy improves. Multifamily vacancy rates are forecast to decline from 5.8 percent in the current quarter to 4.9 percent in the first quarter of 2012.
Areas with the lowest multifamily vacancy rates presently are San Jose, Calif.; Pittsburgh; and Newark, N.J, with vacancies in a range around 3 percent.
Multifamily net absorption should be 207,000 units in 59 tracked metro areas in 2011.
The COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK is published by the NAR Research Division for the commercial community. NAR’s Commercial Division, formed in 1990, provides targeted products and services to meet the needs of the commercial market and constituency within NAR.
The NAR commercial components include commercial members; commercial committees, subcommittees and forums; commercial real estate boards and structures; and the NAR commercial affiliate organizations – CCIM Institute, Institute of Real Estate Management, Realtors® Land Institute, Society of Industrial and Office Realtors®, and Counselors of Real Estate.
Approximately 79,000 NAR and institute affiliate members specialize in commercial brokerage services, and an additional 263,000 members offer commercial real estate as a secondary business.
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
# # #
1 The SIOR Commercial Real Estate Index, conducted by SIOR and analyzed by NAR Research, is a diffusion index based on market conditions as viewed by local SIOR experts. For more information contact Richard Hollander, SIOR, at 202/449-8200.
2Additional analyses will be posted under Economists’ Commentary in the Research area of Realtor.org in coming days.
The next commercial real estate forecast and quarterly market report will be released on May 24.
Information about NAR is available at www.realtor.org.
For Further Information Contact:
Walter Molony, 202/383-1177
wmolony@realtors.org
WASHINGTON (February 25, 2011) – A stabilization trend is taking place in commercial real estate sectors, but in most markets rent will remain soft except for multifamily rentals, according to the National Association of Realtors.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said a pullback in construction is helping stabilize the market. “Very limited construction of new commercial real estate over the past few years has essentially fixed the supply of available space,” he said. “This means vacancy rates could fall quickly from any increase in demand for commercial space.”
From the first quarter of this year to the first quarter of 2012, NAR expects vacancy rates to decline 0.5 percentage point in the office sector, 1.3 points in industrial real estate, 0.1 point in the retail sector and 0.9 percentage point in the multifamily rental market.
“Even with declining vacancy rates, rents are not likely to turn positive in most markets until next year, outside of multifamily rental properties,” Yun said. For example, office rents are forecast to fall 1.8 percent this year before turning higher by 4.0 percent in 2012.
“Apartment rent increases are expected to accelerate from job creation leading to new household formation, particularly among the young adult population who will seek their own housing arrangements – many will be leaving their parents’ homes, or choose to live with with fewer roommates,” Yun said.
Average apartment rent is projected to grow 3.4 percent this year and another 4.2 percent in 2012.
“Rising apartment rent in combination with rising oil prices could push the overall inflation rate beyond a comfort level, which could then force the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later this year or early in 2012,” Yun added.
The Society of Industrial and Office Realtors, in its SIOR Commercial Real Estate Index, an attitudinal survey of more than 360 local market experts,1 shows a notable improvement in market fundamentals.
The SIOR index, measuring the impact of 10 variables, rose 8.1 percentage points to 50.7 in the fourth quarter, the largest quarterly gain in five years, and is at the highest level since the fall of 2008. However, the index is well below a level of 100 that represents a balanced marketplace. This is the fifth consecutive quarterly improvement following nearly three years of decline, but the last time the index was at the 100 level was in the third quarter of 2007.
Commercial Real Estate Forecast/Market Report
Seventy-eight percent of SIOR participants expect improvements in the office and industrial sectors for the first quarter of this year.
There has been an increase of liquidity in Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities, which is helping to open the commercial market to more property transactions; commercial real estate sales had been stalled over the past few years with excessively tight credit conditions. In terms of development acquisitions, it remains a buyer’s market for those with cash or who can obtain credit financing.
NAR’s latest COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK2 offers projections for four major commercial sectors and analyzes quarterly data in the office, industrial, retail and multifamily markets. Historic data were provided by CBRE Econometric Advisors.
Office Markets
Vacancy rates in the office sector are forecast to decline from 16.5 percent in the first quarter of this year to 16.0 percent in the first quarter of 2012.
The markets with the lowest office vacancy rates currently are New York City and Honolulu, with vacancies in the 8 to 9 percent range.
In 57 markets tracked, net absorption of office space, which includes the leasing of new space coming on the market as well as space in existing properties, should be 14.5 million square feet in 2011.
Industrial Markets
Industrial vacancy rates are projected to decline from 14.2 percent in the current quarter to 12.9 percent in the first quarter of 2012.
At present, the areas with the lowest industrial vacancy rates are Los Angeles and Salt Lake City, with vacancies of 7.5 percent.
Annual industrial rent is likely to decline 2.5 percent in 2011, before rising 3.0 percent next year. Net absorption of industrial space in 58 markets tracked should be 127.5 million square feet in 2011.
Retail Markets
Retail vacancy rates are expected to slip from 13.0 percent in the first quarter of this year to 12.9 percent in the first quarter of 2012.
Markets with the lowest retail vacancy rates currently include San Francisco; Miami; Honolulu; and Long Island, N.Y., all with vacancies in the 7 to 8 percent range.
Average retail rent is seen to decline 0.9 percent in 2011, then rising 0.7 percent next year. Net absorption of retail space in 53 tracked markets is projected to be 4.8 million in 2011.
Multifamily Markets
The apartment rental market – multifamily housing – is tightening as the economy improves. Multifamily vacancy rates are forecast to decline from 5.8 percent in the current quarter to 4.9 percent in the first quarter of 2012.
Areas with the lowest multifamily vacancy rates presently are San Jose, Calif.; Pittsburgh; and Newark, N.J, with vacancies in a range around 3 percent.
Multifamily net absorption should be 207,000 units in 59 tracked metro areas in 2011.
The COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE OUTLOOK is published by the NAR Research Division for the commercial community. NAR’s Commercial Division, formed in 1990, provides targeted products and services to meet the needs of the commercial market and constituency within NAR.
The NAR commercial components include commercial members; commercial committees, subcommittees and forums; commercial real estate boards and structures; and the NAR commercial affiliate organizations – CCIM Institute, Institute of Real Estate Management, Realtors® Land Institute, Society of Industrial and Office Realtors®, and Counselors of Real Estate.
Approximately 79,000 NAR and institute affiliate members specialize in commercial brokerage services, and an additional 263,000 members offer commercial real estate as a secondary business.
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
# # #
1 The SIOR Commercial Real Estate Index, conducted by SIOR and analyzed by NAR Research, is a diffusion index based on market conditions as viewed by local SIOR experts. For more information contact Richard Hollander, SIOR, at 202/449-8200.
2Additional analyses will be posted under Economists’ Commentary in the Research area of Realtor.org in coming days.
The next commercial real estate forecast and quarterly market report will be released on May 24.
Information about NAR is available at www.realtor.org.
For Further Information Contact:
Walter Molony, 202/383-1177
wmolony@realtors.org
Tuesday, January 18, 2011
NAI Black Retained as Property Mgr & Leasing Agents for Rock Pointe Corporate Center
NAI Black has been retained as property manager and leasing agent for the Rock Pointe Corporate Center, a Class A office park with 600,000 SF of office space plus structured parking in Spokane, WA. Thomas Hix, CPM, will be lead property manager for the asset, with Heidi Irvine as co-manager. Jeff Johnson, CCIM SIOR will direct leasing activities with Jeff McGougan and Jon Jeffreys as leasing agents.
Thursday, December 30, 2010
GSA U.S. Army MEPS Transaction
Jeff McGougan and Jon Jeffreys of Black Commercial, Inc. an NAI Black company finalized a build to suit lease transaction with the GSA US Army MEPS (Military Entrance Processing Station) on a 15 year lease for 20,328 useable square feet In Spokane, Washington. Total volume for this transaction was $9,278,715.60.
Monday, December 6, 2010
Latest Transactions
Savory Restaurant
1314 South Grand Blvd
Leased 4,350 SF
Agents: Mark McLees
Chris Bell
James Black.
Farmers Market & Garden
1420 East Sprague
23,375 SF land
Sale Price $324,000
Agent: Mark McLees
103 E Indiana
5,200 SF
Buyers: Law Office of Geoffrey D. Swindler and Gallatin Public Affairs
Sale price $395,000
Agents: Mark McLees
Earl Engle
Kevin Edwards
1314 South Grand Blvd
Leased 4,350 SF
Agents: Mark McLees
Chris Bell
James Black.
Farmers Market & Garden
1420 East Sprague
23,375 SF land
Sale Price $324,000
Agent: Mark McLees
103 E Indiana
5,200 SF
Buyers: Law Office of Geoffrey D. Swindler and Gallatin Public Affairs
Sale price $395,000
Agents: Mark McLees
Earl Engle
Kevin Edwards
Monday, October 18, 2010
Recent Transactions
SALE Office Building
16,932 SF
Rowan Professional Building
12 East Rowan
Jim Orcutt
Black Commercial, Inc.
an NAI Black company
SALE Office Building
9,000 SF
910 West Boone
Jim Orcutt
Black Commercial, Inc.
an NAI Black company
SALE Industrial Land
Cheney School District
Mitch Swenson
Black Commercial, Inc.
an NAI Black company
SALE
Farmer's Market
1420 East Sprague
Mark McLees
Black Commercial, Inc.
an NAI Black company
LEASE
1,651 SF
COR, Center for Organizational Reform
1102 West 6th Avenue
Kevin Edwards
Black Commercial, Inc.
an NAI Black company
LEASE
U.S. Government
Schade Towers
528 East Spokane Falls Blvd
1,332 SF
Jeff McGougan
James S. Black III
Black Commercial, Inc.
an NAI Black company
LEASE
Law Offices of Andrew C. Bohrensen
Fernwell Building
505 West Riverside
1,587 SF
Jon Jeffreys
Black Commercial, Inc.
an NAI Black company
SALE
Office Land
51,653 SF
13424 East Mission
Mark McLees
Black Commercial, Inc.
an NAI Black company
16,932 SF
Rowan Professional Building
12 East Rowan
Jim Orcutt
Black Commercial, Inc.
an NAI Black company
SALE Office Building
9,000 SF
910 West Boone
Jim Orcutt
Black Commercial, Inc.
an NAI Black company
SALE Industrial Land
Cheney School District
Mitch Swenson
Black Commercial, Inc.
an NAI Black company
SALE
Farmer's Market
1420 East Sprague
Mark McLees
Black Commercial, Inc.
an NAI Black company
LEASE
1,651 SF
COR, Center for Organizational Reform
1102 West 6th Avenue
Kevin Edwards
Black Commercial, Inc.
an NAI Black company
LEASE
U.S. Government
Schade Towers
528 East Spokane Falls Blvd
1,332 SF
Jeff McGougan
James S. Black III
Black Commercial, Inc.
an NAI Black company
LEASE
Law Offices of Andrew C. Bohrensen
Fernwell Building
505 West Riverside
1,587 SF
Jon Jeffreys
Black Commercial, Inc.
an NAI Black company
SALE
Office Land
51,653 SF
13424 East Mission
Mark McLees
Black Commercial, Inc.
an NAI Black company
Thursday, October 14, 2010
Heidi Irvine selected as IREM Foundation Scholarship Recipient
Heidi Irvine selected as an IREM Foundation Scholarship Recipient
"Heidi Irvine, Property Manager at Black Realty Management, Inc., an NAI Black company, has been selected as a recipient of the IREM Foundation's Paul H. Rittle Sr. Scholarship. The scholarship provides tuition assistance for the recipient to attend up to three IREM courses of their choosing. Irvine is an Associate Member of IREM and is pursuing IREM's Accredited Commercial Manager (ACoM) designation. She manages a portfolio of office, medical office, retail and industrial properties for NAI Black. NAI Black has been designated an Accredited Management Organization by IREM."
"Heidi Irvine, Property Manager at Black Realty Management, Inc., an NAI Black company, has been selected as a recipient of the IREM Foundation's Paul H. Rittle Sr. Scholarship. The scholarship provides tuition assistance for the recipient to attend up to three IREM courses of their choosing. Irvine is an Associate Member of IREM and is pursuing IREM's Accredited Commercial Manager (ACoM) designation. She manages a portfolio of office, medical office, retail and industrial properties for NAI Black. NAI Black has been designated an Accredited Management Organization by IREM."
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